Something that came across my mind today was a runningback in Cleveland by the name of Peyton Hillis. He's an absolute bulldog and pretty physical for a white guy, I must say. Anyhow, he's a ferocious downhill runner who takes beating after beating. Kid popped out of nowhere thanks to RB injuries in the first 2 weeks of the season, and got a chance and lived up to it. Towards the end of the season he started to wear down and it was noticeable, he was putting up games like 22 carries for 128 yards and 3 TDs as well as like 5 catches for 68 yards during the middle part of the season, but towards the end you're seeing him take like 15 carries for like 40 fucking yards. Kid just was burned out from trying to knock over everyone this year, as well as trying to hurdle 6'5" defensive linemen.
But what really made me thing about his future was watching Eric Mangini talk about the NFL Playoffs this morning on ESPN. And before I go any further I'd just like to point out how dumb that is that Sportscenter would even consider bringing that idiot on set to talk -- it's almost worse than Matt Millen on Monday Night Football pre-game and post-game. So I'm watching him and I'm saying to myself "why are they talking to this guy? He had the most explosive and brutal RB that completely shocked us all and he still couldn't make this team somewhat good."
So when I thought of that it caused me to think of other recent power running backs who came from nowhere and dominated for a short period of time -- basically 1-3 seasons. The first two that popped into my head:
RB Brandon Jacobs of the New York Giants
RB Larry Johnson of the Kansas City Chiefs
Jacobs' story is simple. He burst out on the scene in 06 as Tiki's #2 guy. Tiki would take the brunt work and Jacobs would get about 6-8 carries per game, typically on short-yardage situations like 3rd & 1, 4th & inches, and goal line plays. he was huge. Anybody ever see that hit he put on LaRon Landry a few years back? Absolutely pulverized him. Ever since he started getting 15-20 carries per game he quickly wore out. Started getting all these nagging little injuries that slow down a big guy from all the big hits he takes, and ultimately is a has-been. He started trying to avoid contact and be more elusive to avoid the injuries -- which he did avoid this season but ultimately wasn't that good.
Larry Johnson is the big guy I want to emphasize on, though. Got the starting nod after Priest Holmes, one of the best to ever play the game, suffered that career-ending neck injury many years ago. Larry bursts onto the scene and in his first two full seasons puts up an astonishing 1750 yards and 20 TDs in 05, then 1789 yards and 17 TDs in 06. Problem was? He ran for almost 1800 yards that 06 season but his average yards per carry was mediocre 4.3. He had over 400 carries that year, and a big guy carrying the ball 400 times is scary... very scary. That is why he ultimately never had another 1000 yard season after two unforgettable years as a RB in Kansas City.
So that brings me to wonder how Peyton Hillis will play in 2011 and 2012. This season he took over the starting job for Jerome Harrison who had an injury early in the season -- Hillis got the ball 9 times in week one for 41 yards and a TD, as well as 4 receptions for 24 yards. His rushing average was just over 4.5. The following week he gets just 8 carries for 35 yards and a TD. Week 3 was his first starting game. The big guy racked up 144 yards on 22 carries and a TD, as well as 7 receptions for 36 yards. Suddenly, he's a house-hold name and Harrison unfortunately lost his job and could do nothing about. Hillis would finish the season having put up 5 100+ yard rushing games, as well as 4 games with 49 or more receiving yards.
He certainly has the potential to rack up a lot of yards but their new coach in 2011 is going to have to play his cards better. Hillis' receiving totals will only improve if McCoy progresses in his development, but will take a hit if the club has a breakout Wide Receiver. What I'm more concerned with is how the coaching staff will keep him rested, to utilize his strengths and make him a versatile weapon without taking too many hits. It all comes down to the passing game, otherwise the defense will load 9 men in the box and Peyton will get pulverized. The 25 year old Hillis has the world in his hands and will certainly be a hot Fantasy Football commodity next season due to his size and ability to reach the endzone, as well as his ability to take in 4 or 5 catches a game - Hillis has 61 receptions this year and he is a Running Back. Thats impressive.
My Prediction:
(approximate)
290 Carries
1,280 Yards
15 TDs
4.41 y/c
49 Receptions
395 Yards
3 TDs
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