I've been avoiding this as long as possible, but I my heart always pulls me back to the team I love and hate equally. Time to preview the hell out of this Mets season, from a realistic, idealistic and pessimistic approach which most people never do.
1) This Lineup Scares Me -- When I say this lineup scares me, I mean I shake and cry when I look at it, not that it strikes fear into the hearts of our opponents. Seriously, I am terified by this lineup, and have absolutely no idea how it will look on August 1st, 2013 -- yes, I am looking that far ahead -- , and the funny thing is the rotation can easily be predicted on August 1st, 2013 since there is so much pitching talent in our Minor League system that is closer than most people think to having an impact next season.
First off, I have no idea who is leading off and that is problem #1, since every year (except for 1 year the Manuel tried to play Reyes 3rd) we've always known who was leading off, assuming Reyes was healthy. Now, it's basically a fight between Andres Torres & Ruben Tejada. Regardless of who leads off on Opening Day, I actually think Tejada makes more sense this season. His OBP this spring has been much better, and getting to see hitters on a daily basis will only help him. When you see him followed up by Daniel Murphy and David Wright, that is an excellent sign. Murphy hits for average but can send a few balls into the gap, and even show a little pop from time to time. He has had a phenomenal spring in terms of getting on base, but his lack of extra base hits worries me. David is a toss-up at this point. I don't even get why Mets fans are so terrified of him being traded -- he hasn't even been that good in the last 3 seasons, and has had an injury trouble each of the last two years, with the first being a Concussion.
Looking at the middle of the lineup, you have Ike & Jason Bay -- again, big question marks. It took Ike some time to get back into form, but he's now hit 3 HRs in each of his final 3 Spring Training games and looks to be keyed in. He'll bat cleanup and give Wright the insurance he needs to boost his confidence. As for Bay, I expect little to nothing from him. I'm at the point where 15 HRs will please me, and 20 will have me jumping for joy. There's clearly something wrong with his eyes or his head or something, because he's not even hitting the ball. It would be a different story if he was getting under pitches, or hitting fly balls just shy of the wall, but he is striking out on every breaking ball thrown his way. I don't expect much but even the bare minimum I'll be happy. Depending on how the first two months go, there's a good chance Lucas Duda moves ahead of Bay in the Lineup into that 5 slot. It wouldn't make sense to have (totally predicting here) Ike hit 28-32 HRs at 4, Bay hit 9 HRs at 5, and Duda hit 24 HRs at 6 in the lineup.
I've even wondered if moving Wright back to the 5 spot and Bay to 3 would make sense, even if it was for 2 weeks as an experiment. Wright was his best when he batted behind Delgado and Beltran a few years ago, and played the 5 spot. Having Bay hit before Ike might get him more fastballs to avoid putting him on base with a walk and Ike and Wright waiting in line. It might give him some confidence and bring him back to 2009 form. Rounding out the lineup is pretty much Josh Thole & Andres Torres or Ruben Tejada, depending on who is more consistent when leading off.
2). Most people are most concerned about our pitching, but I actually think the lineup is the more questionable area. Even before Santana's injury, he had a very good ERA with us. It was the wins he wasn't getting and again that falls directly on the lineup failing to provide insurance for him. Santana has been our best pitcher this Spring, and I truly feel like he wil lgive us a 3.30 ERA, or at least somewhere in that ballpark, which would be a welcome relief. R.A. Dickey and Jonathan Niese will be right behind him in the rotation. R.A. has been very consistent and reliable, and I predict Niese will have a big year. Not huge, but a 3.60 ERA. Moving the wall in RF in worries me a bit. Niese gave up 20 HRs in his first full year, and only 14 last year. This Spring his ERA was high but as always, his strikeout/walk ratio was excellent and he was efficient in not allowing HRs. If he can keep his control, learn to use his nasty Curveball more effectively, and maybe add a little zip to it, he could have a surprising year.
Rounding off the rotation is Dillon Gee & Mike Pelfrey. It's scary how fast Pelfrey has fallen from grace. He had a great first half of the season not too long ago, and was even an All-Star contender that season. The second half of the 2010 season really hit him hard andi t seemed like his mind never got off that last season. Quite frankly, I'm sick of hearing "he has the stuff". We know he has the stuff, but he doesn't know it. It's all in his head and he will never be as effective as we once hoped. For now, he's simply a fill-in to avoid calling up a young pitcher prematurely. He's there to hold a spot, and maybe he surprises and has a very good first two months, and gets traded right around the time Chris Young is healthy and ready to pitch. Other than that, he's just there until one or two of Zach Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia (did you forget about Jenrry?) & Jeurys Familia is ready to make the next big step in 2013.
3) The Bullpen - At this point I don't really care much about the bullpen -- I don't think our lineup has enough firepower to give our pitchers a nice lead, so our bullpen won't do much either than limit the damage on most nights. You've got Frank Francisco as the closer, and hopefully they keep Parnell as a set-up reliever and nothing more. He can't handle the pressure, but is effective as a short reliever.
Herrera could be a good reliever for the Mets, and I don't expect his rough Spring to carry over to the regular season. Also in the bullpen is Ramon Ramirez who was an excellent acquisition in the Pagan trade. If Parnell stinks it up, Ramirez will easily take over the 8th Inning job. I'm actually just assuming Francisco is the Closer because he's closed in the past, but it might be Ramirez. I'm honestly not sure.
4) Lastly, the bench. I hate Nickeas being the backup. To be honest, I think he sucks and provides nothing off the bench. I'm a bit angered that nobody better was brought in to mentor Thole and provide a solid backup off the bench. Backup Catchers get so much playing time, it amazes me teams don't pursue backups harder. Ronny Cedeno might actually become a fan favorite off the bench. He's a cheap player who can provide a few stolen bases off the bench, as well as much Tejada to work hard otherwise Cedeno could take that SS spot. Turner is a good player on the bench as well, as he will act as a utility infielder, taking time at 2B, 1B and even 3B.
5) Bold Predictions: Ike Davis will hit at least 25 HRs if he can play 140+ games this season. Frank Francisco will log 25-30 saves. Jon Niese will win 14 games and have an ERA under 4. David Wright will be traded in July. Mets will finish the season with 72 Wins, 4th in the NL East.
Season Awards Predictions:
AL
MVP - Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees
Cy Young - Jered Weaver, SP, Angels
ROTY - Mike Trout, OF, Angels
MOTY - Bobby Valentine, Boston Red Sox
NL
MVP - Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins
Cy Young - Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies
ROTY - Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
MOTY - Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Trout pick is a gamble. Needs to make big strides at AAA to get called back to the Angels roster. However, they have overpaid and awful OFs, so if one of them gets traded or benched, Trout will get the call. Everyone is gung-ho about Yu Darvish. I think Darvish will one day be a Cy Young candidate, but making the adjustment to MLB Talent will knock him around a bit and I tihink everyone is jumping the gun with Darvish as their ROTY pick.
