I've been avoiding this as long as possible, but I my heart always pulls me back to the team I love and hate equally. Time to preview the hell out of this Mets season, from a realistic, idealistic and pessimistic approach which most people never do.
1) This Lineup Scares Me -- When I say this lineup scares me, I mean I shake and cry when I look at it, not that it strikes fear into the hearts of our opponents. Seriously, I am terified by this lineup, and have absolutely no idea how it will look on August 1st, 2013 -- yes, I am looking that far ahead -- , and the funny thing is the rotation can easily be predicted on August 1st, 2013 since there is so much pitching talent in our Minor League system that is closer than most people think to having an impact next season.
First off, I have no idea who is leading off and that is problem #1, since every year (except for 1 year the Manuel tried to play Reyes 3rd) we've always known who was leading off, assuming Reyes was healthy. Now, it's basically a fight between Andres Torres & Ruben Tejada. Regardless of who leads off on Opening Day, I actually think Tejada makes more sense this season. His OBP this spring has been much better, and getting to see hitters on a daily basis will only help him. When you see him followed up by Daniel Murphy and David Wright, that is an excellent sign. Murphy hits for average but can send a few balls into the gap, and even show a little pop from time to time. He has had a phenomenal spring in terms of getting on base, but his lack of extra base hits worries me. David is a toss-up at this point. I don't even get why Mets fans are so terrified of him being traded -- he hasn't even been that good in the last 3 seasons, and has had an injury trouble each of the last two years, with the first being a Concussion.
Looking at the middle of the lineup, you have Ike & Jason Bay -- again, big question marks. It took Ike some time to get back into form, but he's now hit 3 HRs in each of his final 3 Spring Training games and looks to be keyed in. He'll bat cleanup and give Wright the insurance he needs to boost his confidence. As for Bay, I expect little to nothing from him. I'm at the point where 15 HRs will please me, and 20 will have me jumping for joy. There's clearly something wrong with his eyes or his head or something, because he's not even hitting the ball. It would be a different story if he was getting under pitches, or hitting fly balls just shy of the wall, but he is striking out on every breaking ball thrown his way. I don't expect much but even the bare minimum I'll be happy. Depending on how the first two months go, there's a good chance Lucas Duda moves ahead of Bay in the Lineup into that 5 slot. It wouldn't make sense to have (totally predicting here) Ike hit 28-32 HRs at 4, Bay hit 9 HRs at 5, and Duda hit 24 HRs at 6 in the lineup.
I've even wondered if moving Wright back to the 5 spot and Bay to 3 would make sense, even if it was for 2 weeks as an experiment. Wright was his best when he batted behind Delgado and Beltran a few years ago, and played the 5 spot. Having Bay hit before Ike might get him more fastballs to avoid putting him on base with a walk and Ike and Wright waiting in line. It might give him some confidence and bring him back to 2009 form. Rounding out the lineup is pretty much Josh Thole & Andres Torres or Ruben Tejada, depending on who is more consistent when leading off.
2). Most people are most concerned about our pitching, but I actually think the lineup is the more questionable area. Even before Santana's injury, he had a very good ERA with us. It was the wins he wasn't getting and again that falls directly on the lineup failing to provide insurance for him. Santana has been our best pitcher this Spring, and I truly feel like he wil lgive us a 3.30 ERA, or at least somewhere in that ballpark, which would be a welcome relief. R.A. Dickey and Jonathan Niese will be right behind him in the rotation. R.A. has been very consistent and reliable, and I predict Niese will have a big year. Not huge, but a 3.60 ERA. Moving the wall in RF in worries me a bit. Niese gave up 20 HRs in his first full year, and only 14 last year. This Spring his ERA was high but as always, his strikeout/walk ratio was excellent and he was efficient in not allowing HRs. If he can keep his control, learn to use his nasty Curveball more effectively, and maybe add a little zip to it, he could have a surprising year.
Rounding off the rotation is Dillon Gee & Mike Pelfrey. It's scary how fast Pelfrey has fallen from grace. He had a great first half of the season not too long ago, and was even an All-Star contender that season. The second half of the 2010 season really hit him hard andi t seemed like his mind never got off that last season. Quite frankly, I'm sick of hearing "he has the stuff". We know he has the stuff, but he doesn't know it. It's all in his head and he will never be as effective as we once hoped. For now, he's simply a fill-in to avoid calling up a young pitcher prematurely. He's there to hold a spot, and maybe he surprises and has a very good first two months, and gets traded right around the time Chris Young is healthy and ready to pitch. Other than that, he's just there until one or two of Zach Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia (did you forget about Jenrry?) & Jeurys Familia is ready to make the next big step in 2013.
3) The Bullpen - At this point I don't really care much about the bullpen -- I don't think our lineup has enough firepower to give our pitchers a nice lead, so our bullpen won't do much either than limit the damage on most nights. You've got Frank Francisco as the closer, and hopefully they keep Parnell as a set-up reliever and nothing more. He can't handle the pressure, but is effective as a short reliever.
Herrera could be a good reliever for the Mets, and I don't expect his rough Spring to carry over to the regular season. Also in the bullpen is Ramon Ramirez who was an excellent acquisition in the Pagan trade. If Parnell stinks it up, Ramirez will easily take over the 8th Inning job. I'm actually just assuming Francisco is the Closer because he's closed in the past, but it might be Ramirez. I'm honestly not sure.
4) Lastly, the bench. I hate Nickeas being the backup. To be honest, I think he sucks and provides nothing off the bench. I'm a bit angered that nobody better was brought in to mentor Thole and provide a solid backup off the bench. Backup Catchers get so much playing time, it amazes me teams don't pursue backups harder. Ronny Cedeno might actually become a fan favorite off the bench. He's a cheap player who can provide a few stolen bases off the bench, as well as much Tejada to work hard otherwise Cedeno could take that SS spot. Turner is a good player on the bench as well, as he will act as a utility infielder, taking time at 2B, 1B and even 3B.
5) Bold Predictions: Ike Davis will hit at least 25 HRs if he can play 140+ games this season. Frank Francisco will log 25-30 saves. Jon Niese will win 14 games and have an ERA under 4. David Wright will be traded in July. Mets will finish the season with 72 Wins, 4th in the NL East.
Season Awards Predictions:
AL
MVP - Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees
Cy Young - Jered Weaver, SP, Angels
ROTY - Mike Trout, OF, Angels
MOTY - Bobby Valentine, Boston Red Sox
NL
MVP - Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins
Cy Young - Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies
ROTY - Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
MOTY - Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Trout pick is a gamble. Needs to make big strides at AAA to get called back to the Angels roster. However, they have overpaid and awful OFs, so if one of them gets traded or benched, Trout will get the call. Everyone is gung-ho about Yu Darvish. I think Darvish will one day be a Cy Young candidate, but making the adjustment to MLB Talent will knock him around a bit and I tihink everyone is jumping the gun with Darvish as their ROTY pick.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Knicks "Bloggers" Are Sickening Me
First blog in a while. A long, long while.
I'm a huge Knicks fan. Always have been, always will be. I practically bleed blue & orange. I've realized in the last year that one of the beauties of Twitter is the ability to connect with a group of people -- some of who'm you may not know personally. My primary use for Twitter has been to follow Beat writers for the Mets, Giants and Knicks, as well as bloggers and reporters. A lot of these bloggers are actually pretty smart and from time to time make the reporters and analysts look like morons. They also tweet back and forth with some writers like Alan Hahn. However, there's always a jackass among them.
I encountered one of these jackasses last night. I'll refer to him as "sports guy" for now -- and no, it's not Bill Simmons. Anyhow, this sports guy seems to be a big supporter of Mike D'Antoni, which I have no problem with. Hey, you like the guy's coaching style; cool. To each his own. What I don't like, is sports guy trying to act like he knows it all, and anyone who disagrees with him is a moron. At some point, the love of Mike D'Antoni needs to stop and you need to get on with life and actually blog about what the Knicks are doing on court. Sports Guy was just roaming Twitter yesterday continuing to blame Carmelo Anthony for D'Antoni's departure, and acting like Mike is some kind of saint. I understand that the team struggled when Melo arrived and have been a .500 team since then -- but newslash, the Knicks team in 2010-2011 before Carmelo Anthony was a .500 team, and nothing more. At times it seems like people have completely forgotten that the Knicks were an average team without Carmelo, and were barely in the playoff race. It's not like they were a top 5 team in the East before the trade, so lets just drop that act.
Carmelo Anthony is a phenomenal scorer, and can be a good defender when he's motivated to do so. The problem with Melo this season has been two things: 1) He has battled through countless injuries. 2) Mike D'Antoni refused to let Carmelo play his game.
You bring in a player who is great at playing in isolation, can beat most defenders to get to the basket, is extremely athletic, and is excellent in the low post. The thing most people forget, is Mike D'Antoni refused to let Carmelo play in the Post or isolate. The hate for Carmelo by Sports Guy is absolutely unbelievable. I seriously wonder if he knew anything about how Carmelo Anthony when he played in Denver, or did he just look at his PPG, Rebounds & FG% and squeal around like a fat kid in a candy shop? This would be like trading for a PG who is a phenomenal passer and telling him to be the two guard and take mostly 3pt shots. That is not coaching. That is being stubborn. Mike D'Antoni was stubborn in Phoenix, and he was stubborn until his final hour in New York. Sure, he had a winning team for a while in phoenix, but that's because he had a great PG who fit perfeclty into his system. Still, when he got to the playoffs and opposing coaches had day after day to see how his team played, they made adjustments, and D'Antoni's powerhouse Suns teams never won a title.
Great coaches take the personnel they have, and make adjustments. They figure out how to play to the strengths of who they have, and that is the exact opposite of what D'Antoni did.
And now, back to Sports Guy. So when people who follow him (who I presume have unfollowed him by now) responded and refuted his statements, he simply backpeddaled like a tennis player about to be spiked, and called every Knicks fan "delusional". Hey, great way to have followers, ey buddy? If that's not one of the most asinine things to say, I don't know what is.
Lastly, I finally made my mark on the discussion. In the middle of his MD gargling he mentioned D'Antoni's NYK team was a top defense this year before Woodson took over. In my eyes, I saw that statement as pro-Mike, as was the rest of his argument. Unfortunately, he asks who was to credit? Mike or Woodson? So obviously I responded with a question of my own -- "Has Mike D'Antoni ever been considered a defensive coach?" Simple question that basically answers itself and answers his original question. Rather than admitting Mike D'Antoni doesn't give two shits about coaching defense, he has the audacity to respond to me with the following quote:
Instead I responded and immediately blocked him, and unfollowed him. My response was simply pointing out the flaw in his "Mike D'Antoni's defense rules, woot woot" BS argument. Who does he think he is, trying to BS a BSer like myself?
So I assume in the end, Sports Guy thinks no defense and all offense wins championships, which is interesting since that same system never worked for Mike D'Antoni. Look, instead of actually following a Knicks team that is winning, he's creaming his pants over Mike D'Antoni being quitting weeks ago. Oh, and that's another thing. Sports Guy continues to claim D'Antoni was fired. Uh, newsflash bro, D'Antoni quit. Melo didn't force him out. Melo didn't get him fired. Mike went to management and asked them to trade Carmelo to NJ (who are trying to move to Brooklyn and take over NY, by the way) and they basically told him to get lost. Not only would that trade have put an end to Melo as a Knick, but it would have officially destroyed Linsanity, which is the lone anti-Melo argument, since the trade would have sent PG Deron Williams to NY and push Lin back to the bench.
Right now,Tone Loc Mike Woodson has my support. He's confrontational (D'Antoni wasn't. You'd think that was important when you have two Superstars) and gives guys a kick in the ass. He emphasizes defense, both switching, help, and one on one D. He understands that turnovers cause havoc, and when you have an athletic forward like Carmelo Anthony, the transition mismatches can work wonders for the team. When you force turnovers, you get transition buckets. Do you think the Heat just grab the ball after a bucket, step over the line, inbound ,and just toss it all the way down-court to a wide-open Dwayne Wade? No. They steal a pass, or they block a shot. It's not a fact, it's common sense. Good D leads to transition points.
I'm a huge Knicks fan. Always have been, always will be. I practically bleed blue & orange. I've realized in the last year that one of the beauties of Twitter is the ability to connect with a group of people -- some of who'm you may not know personally. My primary use for Twitter has been to follow Beat writers for the Mets, Giants and Knicks, as well as bloggers and reporters. A lot of these bloggers are actually pretty smart and from time to time make the reporters and analysts look like morons. They also tweet back and forth with some writers like Alan Hahn. However, there's always a jackass among them.
I encountered one of these jackasses last night. I'll refer to him as "sports guy" for now -- and no, it's not Bill Simmons. Anyhow, this sports guy seems to be a big supporter of Mike D'Antoni, which I have no problem with. Hey, you like the guy's coaching style; cool. To each his own. What I don't like, is sports guy trying to act like he knows it all, and anyone who disagrees with him is a moron. At some point, the love of Mike D'Antoni needs to stop and you need to get on with life and actually blog about what the Knicks are doing on court. Sports Guy was just roaming Twitter yesterday continuing to blame Carmelo Anthony for D'Antoni's departure, and acting like Mike is some kind of saint. I understand that the team struggled when Melo arrived and have been a .500 team since then -- but newslash, the Knicks team in 2010-2011 before Carmelo Anthony was a .500 team, and nothing more. At times it seems like people have completely forgotten that the Knicks were an average team without Carmelo, and were barely in the playoff race. It's not like they were a top 5 team in the East before the trade, so lets just drop that act.
Carmelo Anthony is a phenomenal scorer, and can be a good defender when he's motivated to do so. The problem with Melo this season has been two things: 1) He has battled through countless injuries. 2) Mike D'Antoni refused to let Carmelo play his game.
You bring in a player who is great at playing in isolation, can beat most defenders to get to the basket, is extremely athletic, and is excellent in the low post. The thing most people forget, is Mike D'Antoni refused to let Carmelo play in the Post or isolate. The hate for Carmelo by Sports Guy is absolutely unbelievable. I seriously wonder if he knew anything about how Carmelo Anthony when he played in Denver, or did he just look at his PPG, Rebounds & FG% and squeal around like a fat kid in a candy shop? This would be like trading for a PG who is a phenomenal passer and telling him to be the two guard and take mostly 3pt shots. That is not coaching. That is being stubborn. Mike D'Antoni was stubborn in Phoenix, and he was stubborn until his final hour in New York. Sure, he had a winning team for a while in phoenix, but that's because he had a great PG who fit perfeclty into his system. Still, when he got to the playoffs and opposing coaches had day after day to see how his team played, they made adjustments, and D'Antoni's powerhouse Suns teams never won a title.
Great coaches take the personnel they have, and make adjustments. They figure out how to play to the strengths of who they have, and that is the exact opposite of what D'Antoni did.
And now, back to Sports Guy. So when people who follow him (who I presume have unfollowed him by now) responded and refuted his statements, he simply backpeddaled like a tennis player about to be spiked, and called every Knicks fan "delusional". Hey, great way to have followers, ey buddy? If that's not one of the most asinine things to say, I don't know what is.
Lastly, I finally made my mark on the discussion. In the middle of his MD gargling he mentioned D'Antoni's NYK team was a top defense this year before Woodson took over. In my eyes, I saw that statement as pro-Mike, as was the rest of his argument. Unfortunately, he asks who was to credit? Mike or Woodson? So obviously I responded with a question of my own -- "Has Mike D'Antoni ever been considered a defensive coach?" Simple question that basically answers itself and answers his original question. Rather than admitting Mike D'Antoni doesn't give two shits about coaching defense, he has the audacity to respond to me with the following quote:
Let me guess..your one of those people that think defense wins rings huh?Well, I could have easily trounced him by simply linking him to this:
Instead I responded and immediately blocked him, and unfollowed him. My response was simply pointing out the flaw in his "Mike D'Antoni's defense rules, woot woot" BS argument. Who does he think he is, trying to BS a BSer like myself?
So I assume in the end, Sports Guy thinks no defense and all offense wins championships, which is interesting since that same system never worked for Mike D'Antoni. Look, instead of actually following a Knicks team that is winning, he's creaming his pants over Mike D'Antoni being quitting weeks ago. Oh, and that's another thing. Sports Guy continues to claim D'Antoni was fired. Uh, newsflash bro, D'Antoni quit. Melo didn't force him out. Melo didn't get him fired. Mike went to management and asked them to trade Carmelo to NJ (who are trying to move to Brooklyn and take over NY, by the way) and they basically told him to get lost. Not only would that trade have put an end to Melo as a Knick, but it would have officially destroyed Linsanity, which is the lone anti-Melo argument, since the trade would have sent PG Deron Williams to NY and push Lin back to the bench.
Right now,
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
The Hall of Fame and it's Lost Purpose
A very good player, as I would put it, has retired from Major League Baseball after a 17 year career. He showed moments of brilliance, and was an integral part of his team's success throughout his tenure. This man is Jorge Posada, and he was a catcher for the New York Yankees. Now that he has officially retired, a large debate is about to open up as to whether or not he should be inducted into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
In 5 years Jorge will be eligible to be inducted, and will appear on the Ballot for induction. None can argue that Jorge had a very good career, and will go down as a top 5 Yankees catcher, if not top 3. However, there are many teams in the MLB who have never had a catcher inducted into the Hall of Fame, and because of that I feel his ranking among all-time Yankees catchers is an argument that cannot be used -- what can be used are his accolades.
5x All Star.
5x Silver Slugger.
Finished 3rd in MVP in 2003.
4x World Series Champion.
What stands out to me is the Silver Slugger -- 5x is a very good accomplishment. What pushes Jorge away from the Hall is only making the All Star Game 5 times. You cannot define a player based on just his accomplishments, though must compare him to the other catchers during his career. It is what defines the Hall of Fame -- connecting the best players from generation to generation.
Fortunately for us, there is a website that makes our search for comparable players much easier -- it is Baseball-Reference.com. Simply, Baseball-Reference says the following players during Jorge's career can be compared: Javy Lopez & Benito Santiago. Santiago had a career average of 18 HRs per season, and an OPS of .722. Jorge had career averages of 24 HRs and .848 OPS. Much better numbers. However, Santiago was a better defensive catcher, and also earned a Gold Glove 3 times. He was selected to the All Star game 5 times, won the Silver Slugger award 4 times, and was Rookie of the Year in 1987. His accolades are far superior despite his career averages, which can be attributed to playing more seasons.
When we compare Jorge to Javy Lopez, Lopez was a career .828 OPS and averaged 28 HRs per year. Jorge was more consistent throughout his career, although Javy at times was far superior, having eclipsed 1.000 OPS twice in his career, and once hit 43 HRs. My point here is simple -- there are two other catchers not even being conidered for the Hall of Fame, who had very similar career to Jorge Poada during Jorge' time in the MLB -- and yet there are till 3 catchers during his generation that are far, far superior.
Mike Piazza & Ivan Rodriguez.
To me, the purpose of the Hall of Fame has become lost over time. When taking a close glance at the inductees when the Hall was opened, it's apparent that the purpose is to connect the best of each generation through time. The Hall is a living timeline that welds each generation together through history, never to be forgotten. If you cannot put a player at the top 3 of his position in his generation, he has no belonging in the Hall of Fame. This is not the "Hall of Good Players". It is the Hall of Fame. The best of the best. Just take a look at the first year of Inductees -- 6 players:
Cy Young
Walter Johnson
Ty Cobb
Honus Wagner
Christy Mathewson
Babe Ruth
They were the best at their time. They were players you had to see. Nobody would ever debate their talents -- when you can debate a player's belonging in the Hall of Fame, that should immediately eliminate them from the ballot.
In 5 years Jorge will be eligible to be inducted, and will appear on the Ballot for induction. None can argue that Jorge had a very good career, and will go down as a top 5 Yankees catcher, if not top 3. However, there are many teams in the MLB who have never had a catcher inducted into the Hall of Fame, and because of that I feel his ranking among all-time Yankees catchers is an argument that cannot be used -- what can be used are his accolades.
5x All Star.
5x Silver Slugger.
Finished 3rd in MVP in 2003.
4x World Series Champion.
What stands out to me is the Silver Slugger -- 5x is a very good accomplishment. What pushes Jorge away from the Hall is only making the All Star Game 5 times. You cannot define a player based on just his accomplishments, though must compare him to the other catchers during his career. It is what defines the Hall of Fame -- connecting the best players from generation to generation.
Fortunately for us, there is a website that makes our search for comparable players much easier -- it is Baseball-Reference.com. Simply, Baseball-Reference says the following players during Jorge's career can be compared: Javy Lopez & Benito Santiago. Santiago had a career average of 18 HRs per season, and an OPS of .722. Jorge had career averages of 24 HRs and .848 OPS. Much better numbers. However, Santiago was a better defensive catcher, and also earned a Gold Glove 3 times. He was selected to the All Star game 5 times, won the Silver Slugger award 4 times, and was Rookie of the Year in 1987. His accolades are far superior despite his career averages, which can be attributed to playing more seasons.
When we compare Jorge to Javy Lopez, Lopez was a career .828 OPS and averaged 28 HRs per year. Jorge was more consistent throughout his career, although Javy at times was far superior, having eclipsed 1.000 OPS twice in his career, and once hit 43 HRs. My point here is simple -- there are two other catchers not even being conidered for the Hall of Fame, who had very similar career to Jorge Poada during Jorge' time in the MLB -- and yet there are till 3 catchers during his generation that are far, far superior.
Mike Piazza & Ivan Rodriguez.
To me, the purpose of the Hall of Fame has become lost over time. When taking a close glance at the inductees when the Hall was opened, it's apparent that the purpose is to connect the best of each generation through time. The Hall is a living timeline that welds each generation together through history, never to be forgotten. If you cannot put a player at the top 3 of his position in his generation, he has no belonging in the Hall of Fame. This is not the "Hall of Good Players". It is the Hall of Fame. The best of the best. Just take a look at the first year of Inductees -- 6 players:
Cy Young
Walter Johnson
Ty Cobb
Honus Wagner
Christy Mathewson
Babe Ruth
They were the best at their time. They were players you had to see. Nobody would ever debate their talents -- when you can debate a player's belonging in the Hall of Fame, that should immediately eliminate them from the ballot.
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